HC HVAC amp R Network Since early April London firm of aluminum in 2300 U S dollars ton again after the break through 2 400 U S dollars ton integer pass the current sound momentum of its rise The Shanghai aluminum has never really out of the oscillation interval its apparent stagnation and that parity between the two cities fell below 7 0 However in recent days Shanghai aluminum futures positions Liangjun London has significantly increased aluminum aluminum capital city is becoming the focus species From the current aluminum market fundamentals point of view long and short intertwine the biggest negative factor is the production of surplus the main factor is the cost factor profitable and consumer demand triggered by the peak season I expected to continue in the capital market driven the focus will be on the Shanghai aluminum futures price move of the week will be a firm 17 000 yuan ton line and will try to break up but high inventories would limit its upward space br br S ufficient excess capacity and inventory is the biggest negative factor in aluminum market Aluminum ingot prices have risen this week though most market participants on the aluminum market confidence the cash business is expected to maintain the recent spot price of 16 000 16 500 yuan ton range because the stock sufficient inventory Last year China 39 s electrolytic aluminum production capacity reached 19 million tons this year there are 4 million tons of capacity under construction production increased much faster than demand growth Currently aluminum social stock of 100 tons At the same time although the introduction of the Ministry of Industry and eliminate backward production capacity policy it is estimated that the policy of the capacity was limited The policy said that before the end of 2011 out of 100 and below a thousand small pre baked anode electrolytic aluminum Nonferrous Metal Association according to statistics the current 100 a thousand and the following electro lytic aluminum production capacity of 140 tons but from the spot market the actual situation the actual running of the production is not so much in the international Financial During the crisis some of which have been closed down the rest is still running below the 100 a thousand electrolytic aluminum production capacity about 70 million 800 000 tons However even the 1 4 million tons of production capacity equivalent to only 1 month in China 39 s electrolytic aluminum output so the policy has little effect on stock prices br br High inventory of repression the spot makes the aluminum business and futures market participants can not chase high Though most investors bullish on aluminum prices but that the sharp rise in short term support of its grounds are still lacking In this situation the callback to do more to buy or bargain is a good strategy because from a cost point of view this species under the support of strong aluminum br br From a cost point of view the current pro duction of electrolytic aluminum arid regions of southwestern cost of 16 500 yuan ton including tax and labor costs the national average cost in other parts of 15000 15 500 yuan ton including tax and labor costs and the future cost of aluminum continue to call Recently market rumors 5 largest electricity group by the joint petition by the Southwest drought hoping to increase the price Although the NDRC said the price increases have not received applications for the power group but this year the rise in coal power generation materials it is an indisputable fact It is understood that the recent three weeks Qinhuangdao coal stocks have declined by 24 direct supply power plant coal inventory days remained at 12 days well below the historical average over the same period 15 days coastal chain of coal freight index rose 4 7 4 weeks for the third consecutive rise In addition due to mine events the recent decline in domestic coal supply such as coal output in Shanxi Province last we ek decreased by 6 9 including state owned key mines dropped by 9 2 Late domestic coal prices still have room to rise while crude oil prices will boost the domestic price of coal br br Alumina prices continue to call later Now with the rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises started rising significantly alumina production can not meet domestic demand imports of alumina this year will become the norm Since the fourth quarter of last year has been tight supply of alumina which in November last year the excess capacity is only 37 000 tons of alumina which is higher alumina prices since late last year aluminum prices and relatively more important reason for resilience It is understood that this year alumina production capacity will reach 36 5 million tons the actual output of alumina is expected to reach 30 8 million tons estimated consumption of 3 500 tons which make up the gap through imports estimated at 4 2 million tons imported Alumina imports in recent months fro m the data imports of alumina this year far more than 4 2 million tons A large number of alumina imports will drive prices higher last week has raised the international market price of 10 dollars Alumina tons alumina prices are expected to stand firm in April 2800 yuan ton later he added br br Consumer demand triggered by the peak season has reflected especially in the North American market Recently the London aluminum reduction mainly reflects the cancellation of warehouse receipts in the region Last week the U S aluminum premium over 5 years high due to increased demand and lower freight costs up making aluminum shipments in parts of tensions Data showed a strong rebound in orders in North America aluminum semi finished products in March from an increase of 25 At the same time the world 39 s largest aluminum producer Russian Aluminum United Company UCRUSAL confirmed that is considering the introduction of exchange traded fund of aluminum ETF announced this news also pushed up prices of aluminum In addition the Indian state owned companies NationalAluminiumCoLtd NALCO to the spot price premium over LME aluminum 82 28 U S dollars ton cost plus insurance and freight to sell 9 000 tons of aluminum ingots of aluminum to provide support for the news br br In short the approach of the stock market this week the stock market volatile disk which will affect the commodities futures market The most concern is the current market released Thursday CPI PPI GDP Data About Shanghai aluminum futures trend I maintain the bullish view but its up space or to repression by high inventory 17 250 yuan ton is the first pressure level In the current market situation the callback to do more on the operation of Shanghai aluminum is a better strategy br br Hot topics 4 7 Day 9 China Refrigeration Field Watch feature Huicong br CIHE amp HVAC2010 China Beijing International Exhibition topics HVAC br 2010 the inaugural quot HC buyers group quot China Refrigeration Expo deb ut br Upcoming Events 2010 5 28 Day 29 May 2010 in Guangzhou 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